Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
