Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
